PJB-2024-579
THE SPREAD OF MOISTURE DEFICIT: PRECONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION OF ARIDIZATION IN KAZAKHSTAN AND RUSSIA
Sergey Ogorodnikov
Abstract
In recent years, climate change has become one of the most pressing challenges facing agriculture worldwide, necessitating the adaptation of agricultural practices and the development of new management strategies. The aim of this study is to assess the changes and impact of climatic factors in Kazakhstan and Russia on grain crop yields. It has been established that from 1991 to 2023, there has been a decrease in precipitation and an increase in average annual temperatures during the warm season in Northern and Central Kazakhstan, as well as in the European part of Russia (specifically, in the Tula region). These changes contribute to the intensification of aridization, which negatively affects the agriculture of the region. Notably, the precipitation volume during the growing season (May-August) in the area of the Irtysh meteorological station in Northern Kazakhstan decreased from 158 mm to 137 mm, while the average annual temperature rose by 0.9°C, indicating an increased likelihood of droughts. In the Tula region (Russia), during the growing season (May-August), precipitation decreased from 267 mm to 257 mm, and the average annual temperature increased by 1.3°C, further pointing to the rising probability of droughts. The adaptation of agriculture to changing climatic conditions is a key factor in ensuring the sustainable development of the region. Regression analysis revealed a strong correlation between agricultural crop yields and both precipitation levels and air temperatures during the growing season. The introduction of drought-resistant crop varieties, optimization of water resources, and other measures may help the region's agriculture adapt to new climate conditions. The findings of this study can be used to develop effective government policies and agricultural support programs aimed at ensuring the sustainable development of the sector.
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