PJB-2018-1648
The prediction of forest carbon sequestration dynamics in Guizhou province and relevant influencing factors
Li Mingjun, Yu Lifei, Xia Huanbai, Nie Chaojun, Huang Zongsheng, Du Mingfeng, Zou Jun and Shi jianhua
Abstract
Guizhou Province in China is a typical karst region. Because of its fragile environment, the restoration of the vegetation and environment of this province is highly important. In this study, biomass expansion factors and average biomass were used to measure the forest biomass, which we used to fit a logistic regression between carbon density and forest age for each forest type based on a 2010 forest inventory in Guizhou. In combination with the Guizhou afforestation plan, the model predicts the trends in carbon storage, carbon density and carbon sequestration rate. In addition, we used grey relational analysis and multiple regression to explore the effects of afforestation, forest age and site conditions. The model demonstrated, first, that forest carbon storage in Guizhou is predicted to gradually increase from 203.62 TgC in 2010 to 575.99 TgC in 2050; second, forest carbon density is also predicted to gradually increase from 29.32 MgC•hm-2 in 2010 to 55.64 MgC•hm-2 in 2050; and finally, afforestation is predicted to significantly improve the forest carbon sequestration rate from 0.72 MgC•hm-2•a-1 in 2010 to 0.77 MgC•hm-2•a-1 in 2050. The expansion of forest area and the increase in forest age resulted from afforestation and promoted forest carbon sinks. Forest carbon sequestration increased significantly with increasing forest age but was strongly constrained by rocky desertification. In addition to afforestation, we suggest that improving the forest carbon sink in Guizhou should put a greater emphasis on approaches such as fully exploiting the carbon sequestration capacity of the existing forests, decreasing disturbance to the existing forests, improving the forest age structure and better managing rocky desertification.
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