PJB-2019-785
MODELING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SUNFLOWER (Helianthus annuus L.) PRODUCTIVITY IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN
Amjed Ali
Abstract
A field study was carried out during spring season, 2015 at College of Agriculture, Sargodha and Adaptive Research Farm Karor (Dist. Layyah) to investigate the climate change impact on growth, development and yield of sunflower hybrids planted at different times. The experiments were comprised of three sunflower hybrids (Hysun 33, S-278 and SF-0046) sown at three different dates (29th Jan, 14th Feb and 1st Mar) under RCBD with split plot arrangement. Maximum AY (4213 kg ha-1) was produced by Hysun-33. In case of sowing dates (29th Jan) performed best as compared to 14th Feb and 1st Mar. The APSIM (Agricultural Production System Simulator) Model was calibrated successfully by adjusting genetic coefficients. Average error of three cultivars in calibration of achene yield and total dry matter was (17% and 17.6) at Sargodha and (22 and 5.9) at Layyah location. Evaluation of model was done against the observed data of remaining two sowing dates. The average error between AY and TDM for 14th Feb was (9% and -9%) at Sargodha and (11.7% and -8.9%) at Layyah location. For 1st March error was (23.5% and -6.6) at Sargodha while, (-9.8% and -13.4%) at Layyah location. The factors which were changed are temperature and CO2. So, the model was sensitized at different temperatures and CO2 levels. The AY was increased averagely under all three concentrations (395 ppm, 480 ppm and 560 ppm) for sowing date 29th Jan and 14th Feb and decreased for 1st March at Sargodha while, at Layyah decrease averagely at both 14th Feb and 1st March sowing. However, in case of increase in temperature (1oC, 2oC, 3oC AY increased averagely for 29th Jan and decreased for 14th Feb and 1st March at Sargodha. While, at Layyah for both 29th Jan and 14th Feb yield showed increased and decreased for 1st March.
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