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Abstract

Clematis tenuifolia Royle is an important medicinal plant of the Ranunculaceae family with great relevance in Tibetan medicine. The research used an adjusted MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, which incorporates multi-source environmental information such as climate, soil and human activity, to predict the existing and future potential distribution of the appropriate habitat of Clematis tenuifolia across four CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5). This study identified the key environmental influences and analyzed the spatial variation properties. The results show that: (1) Important ecological variables affecting distribution include the ratio of the diurnal and annual temperature range (bio3), mean temperature of the wettest season (bio8), and mean temperature of the driest season (bio9); (2) Based on the existing situation, the total area of the suitable habitat is about 103.97 × 104 km2, and most of it is located in southern Tibet and southwestern Sichuan; (3) In future climate scenario, the area of suitability shows a strong tendency to shrink. The high-suitability region withdraws to localized regions in southeastern parts of Tibet, whereas the center of gravity of the suitable region, as a whole, moves southeast towards the Bomi–Medog area of Nyingchi City. These results suggest that the seasonal temperature change is the main factor that influences the distribution of Clematis tenuifolia, and its suitable habitat will be reduced in size and shifted to small-scale locations in southeastern Tibet. Consequently, future efforts should prioritise the protection of potential "climatic refuges" in the Bomi–Medog region of southeastern Tibet. Concurrently, dynamic monitoring and sustainable utilisation of existing high-suitability habitats in southern Tibet and southwestern Sichuan must be emphasised to mitigate the distribution contraction risks posed by climate change to this species.

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