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Abstract

This study seeks to formulate global wheat production projections for the 2025-2030 timeframe, considering the essential and strategic significance of wheat in global nutrition, and to assess the export capabilities of prominent wheat-producing nations. The data for this study were obtained from FAO, and wheat production data for the period 1961-2024 were analyzed using the ARIMA or ARIMAX model in the SAS 9.4 statistical software. According to the results, the total wheat production of the five largest producing countries will be 416.24 million tons (52.13%) in 2024, while, according to the ARIMA and ARIMAX models, production in these countries is projected to be between 433 and 461 million tons in the 2025–2030 period, with a six-year average of approximately 446 million tons. In general, the countries in question want to continue producing the same amount of wheat. Russia, Canada, and France all use strategies that focus on quality to make a lot of money per unit, such as investing in advanced agricultural technologies and promoting high-quality wheat varieties to attract premium prices in the market. The US, India, and Australia, on the other hand, want to send more wheat abroad to make more money. Currently, China and Pakistan prioritize food security and local storage due to their large population's food needs. Türkiye, on the other hand, buys more wheat and turns it into high-value goods like flour and pasta. During certain times, drought and other factors can also lead to big drops in production. Therefore, countries need to conduct research into drought-resistant, high-yield, or high-quality production methods to either increase or improve yields. Countries that successfully utilize new technologies to cope with such risks will have a strategic advantage in shaping the future of the global wheat economy by achieving higher yields or better quality.

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